Von dem Buch Expert Political Judgment, How Good Is It? How Can We Know? haben wir 4 gleiche oder sehr ähnliche Ausgaben identifiziert!
Falls Sie nur an einem bestimmten Exempar interessiert sind, können Sie aus der folgenden Liste jenes wählen, an dem Sie interessiert sind:
100%: Philip E. Tetlock: Expert Political Judgment, How Good Is It? How Can We Know? (ISBN: 9781400830312) 2009, in Englisch, auch als eBook.Nur diese Ausgabe anzeigen…
100%: Tetlock, Philip E.: Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know? (ISBN: 9780691123028) Princeton University Press, in Englisch, Broschiert.Nur diese Ausgabe anzeigen…
95%: Philip E. Tetlock: Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know? New Edition (ISBN: 9780691175973) 2017, Princeton University Press, in Englisch, Taschenbuch.Nur diese Ausgabe anzeigen…
90%: Philip E. Tetlock: Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know? New Edition (ISBN: 9780691178288) Princeton University Press, in Englisch, Broschiert.Nur diese Ausgabe anzeigen…
Expert Political Judgment, How Good Is It? How Can We Know?
2 Angebote vergleichen
Bester Preis: Fr. 29.78 (€ 30.45)¹ (vom 09.07.2016)1
Expert Political Judgment, How Good Is It? How Can We Know? (2009)
EN NW EBISBN: 9781400830312 bzw. 1400830311, in Englisch, Princeton University Press, neu, E-Book.
Lieferung aus: Niederlande, Direct beschikbaar.
bol.com.
The intelligence failures surrounding the invasion of Iraq dramatically illustrate the necessity of developing standards for evaluating expert opinion. This book fills that need. Here, Philip E. Tetlock explores what constitutes good judgment in predicting future events, and looks at why experts are often wrong in their forecasts. Tetlock first discusses arguments about whether the world is too complex for people to find the tools to understand political phenomena, let alone predict the future. ... The intelligence failures surrounding the invasion of Iraq dramatically illustrate the necessity of developing standards for evaluating expert opinion. This book fills that need. Here, Philip E. Tetlock explores what constitutes good judgment in predicting future events, and looks at why experts are often wrong in their forecasts. Tetlock first discusses arguments about whether the world is too complex for people to find the tools to understand political phenomena, let alone predict the future. He evaluates predictions from experts in different fields, comparing them to predictions by well-informed laity or those based on simple extrapolation from current trends. He goes on to analyze which styles of thinking are more successful in forecasting. Classifying thinking styles using Isaiah Berlin's prototypes of the fox and the hedgehog, Tetlock contends that the fox--the thinker who knows many little things, draws from an eclectic array of traditions, and is better able to improvise in response to changing events--is more successful in predicting the future than the hedgehog, who knows one big thing, toils devotedly within one tradition, and imposes formulaic solutions on ill-defined problems. He notes a perversely inverse relationship between the best scientific indicators of good judgement and the qualities that the media most prizes in pundits--the single-minded determination required to prevail in ideological combat. Clearly written and impeccably researched, the book fills a huge void in the literature on evaluating expert opinion. It will appeal across many academic disciplines as well as to corporations seeking to develop standards for judging expert decision-making. Productinformatie:Taal: Engels;Oorspronkelijke titel: Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know?;Formaat: ePub met kopieerbeveiliging (DRM) van Adobe;Bestandsgrootte: 1.52 MB;Kopieerrechten: Het kopiëren van (delen van) de pagina's is niet toegestaan ;Printrechten: Het printen van de pagina's is niet toegestaan;Voorleesfunctie: De voorleesfunctie is uitgeschakeld;Geschikt voor: Alle e-readers te koop bij bol.com (of compatible met Adobe DRM). Telefoons/tablets met Google Android (1.6 of hoger) voorzien van bol.com boekenbol app. PC en Mac met Adobe reader software;ISBN10: 1400830311;ISBN13: 9781400830312;Product breedte: 152 mm;Product hoogte: 19 mm;Product lengte: 235 mm; Engels | Ebook | 2009.
bol.com.
The intelligence failures surrounding the invasion of Iraq dramatically illustrate the necessity of developing standards for evaluating expert opinion. This book fills that need. Here, Philip E. Tetlock explores what constitutes good judgment in predicting future events, and looks at why experts are often wrong in their forecasts. Tetlock first discusses arguments about whether the world is too complex for people to find the tools to understand political phenomena, let alone predict the future. ... The intelligence failures surrounding the invasion of Iraq dramatically illustrate the necessity of developing standards for evaluating expert opinion. This book fills that need. Here, Philip E. Tetlock explores what constitutes good judgment in predicting future events, and looks at why experts are often wrong in their forecasts. Tetlock first discusses arguments about whether the world is too complex for people to find the tools to understand political phenomena, let alone predict the future. He evaluates predictions from experts in different fields, comparing them to predictions by well-informed laity or those based on simple extrapolation from current trends. He goes on to analyze which styles of thinking are more successful in forecasting. Classifying thinking styles using Isaiah Berlin's prototypes of the fox and the hedgehog, Tetlock contends that the fox--the thinker who knows many little things, draws from an eclectic array of traditions, and is better able to improvise in response to changing events--is more successful in predicting the future than the hedgehog, who knows one big thing, toils devotedly within one tradition, and imposes formulaic solutions on ill-defined problems. He notes a perversely inverse relationship between the best scientific indicators of good judgement and the qualities that the media most prizes in pundits--the single-minded determination required to prevail in ideological combat. Clearly written and impeccably researched, the book fills a huge void in the literature on evaluating expert opinion. It will appeal across many academic disciplines as well as to corporations seeking to develop standards for judging expert decision-making. Productinformatie:Taal: Engels;Oorspronkelijke titel: Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know?;Formaat: ePub met kopieerbeveiliging (DRM) van Adobe;Bestandsgrootte: 1.52 MB;Kopieerrechten: Het kopiëren van (delen van) de pagina's is niet toegestaan ;Printrechten: Het printen van de pagina's is niet toegestaan;Voorleesfunctie: De voorleesfunctie is uitgeschakeld;Geschikt voor: Alle e-readers te koop bij bol.com (of compatible met Adobe DRM). Telefoons/tablets met Google Android (1.6 of hoger) voorzien van bol.com boekenbol app. PC en Mac met Adobe reader software;ISBN10: 1400830311;ISBN13: 9781400830312;Product breedte: 152 mm;Product hoogte: 19 mm;Product lengte: 235 mm; Engels | Ebook | 2009.
2
Expert Political Judgment (2009)
EN NW EB DLISBN: 9781400830312 bzw. 1400830311, in Englisch, Princeton University Press, Princeton University Press, Princeton University Press, neu, E-Book, elektronischer Download.
Lieferung aus: Deutschland, in-stock.
The intelligence failures surrounding the invasion of Iraq dramatically illustrate the necessity of developing standards for evaluating expert opinion. This book fills that need. Here, Philip E. Tetlock explores what constitutes good judgment in predicting future events, and looks at why experts are often wrong in their forecasts. Tetlock first discusses arguments about whether the world is too complex for people to find the tools to understand political phenomena, let alone predict the future. He evaluates predictions from experts in different fields, comparing them to predictions by well-informed laity or those based on simple extrapolation from current trends. He goes on to analyze which styles of thinking are more successful in forecasting. Classifying thinking styles using Isaiah Berlin's prototypes of the fox and the hedgehog, Tetlock contends that the fox-the thinker who knows many little things, draws from an eclectic array of traditions, and is better able to improvise in response to changing events-is more successful in predicting the future than the hedgehog, who knows one big thing, toils devotedly within one tradition, and imposes formulaic solutions on ill-defined problems. He notes a perversely inverse relationship between the best scientific indicators of good judgement and the qualities that the media most prizes in pundits-the single-minded determination required to prevail in ideological combat. Clearly written and impeccably researched, the book fills a huge void in the literature on evaluating expert opinion. It will appeal across many academic disciplines as well as to corporations seeking to develop standards for judging expert decision-making.
The intelligence failures surrounding the invasion of Iraq dramatically illustrate the necessity of developing standards for evaluating expert opinion. This book fills that need. Here, Philip E. Tetlock explores what constitutes good judgment in predicting future events, and looks at why experts are often wrong in their forecasts. Tetlock first discusses arguments about whether the world is too complex for people to find the tools to understand political phenomena, let alone predict the future. He evaluates predictions from experts in different fields, comparing them to predictions by well-informed laity or those based on simple extrapolation from current trends. He goes on to analyze which styles of thinking are more successful in forecasting. Classifying thinking styles using Isaiah Berlin's prototypes of the fox and the hedgehog, Tetlock contends that the fox-the thinker who knows many little things, draws from an eclectic array of traditions, and is better able to improvise in response to changing events-is more successful in predicting the future than the hedgehog, who knows one big thing, toils devotedly within one tradition, and imposes formulaic solutions on ill-defined problems. He notes a perversely inverse relationship between the best scientific indicators of good judgement and the qualities that the media most prizes in pundits-the single-minded determination required to prevail in ideological combat. Clearly written and impeccably researched, the book fills a huge void in the literature on evaluating expert opinion. It will appeal across many academic disciplines as well as to corporations seeking to develop standards for judging expert decision-making.
Lade…